Embracing the Uncertain: Fundamentals and Applications of Uncertainty Analysis at Water Resource Recovery Facilities

Planning and designing for future conditions are challenging propositions in the wastewater treatment industry. Both practices include inherent uncertainties surrounding existing performance, performance of new processes, growth within the service area, future regulations, and economic conditions. In conventional planning and design, the risk surrounding these uncertainties is avoided by implementing conservative assumptions around key criteria to ensure adequate planning funds are allocated and processes are sized with sufficient safety factors to operate under a wide range of conditions. While this approach has historically served the needs based on industry averages, increasing demands are being placed on utilities, thus requiring a revised approach to wastewater treatment planning and design. This interactive session explores the key findings of IWA’s Design and Operations Uncertainty Task (DOUT) work group who has been working on uncertainty analysis principles for the last 10 years. Select case studies and speakers have been identified to demonstrate the effectiveness of uncertainty analysis-based approaches through design and planning.