When It Rains, It Pours: Organizational Learning In The Face Of More Extreme Precipitation

Preparing for more heavy rain is difficult, even when rain is your claim to fame. Utilities in Western Washington and Oregon are responsible for a considerable amount of stormwater, wastewater, and flood infrastructure that protects human health and the environment. Understanding climate change impacts on that infrastructure and the differing agency missions driving infrastructure investment is essential to ensuring effective service delivery now and in the future. In 2016 the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group developed updated precipitation scenarios to guide long-term decisions related to stormwater management, wastewater conveyance, and flood risk reduction. The new scenarios, and the subsequent hydrologic and hydraulic analyses based on those scenarios, suggest that current infrastructure design standards may be undersized relative to future conditions. This is an important consideration, as most infrastructure is typically intended to last several decades-if not 'indefinitely' if well maintained. Equally important is acknowledging the amount of uncertainty in the projections when it comes to design and management of infrastructure. The work also pointed to important differences in land use to managing changes in heavy precipitation. Climate changes scenarios for Western Washington and Oregon project changes in heavy precipitation intensity, duration, and frequency, although there is considerable uncertainty in those projections, based on changes in carbon emissions and modeling uncertainty (Figure 1). At the same time, the region is investing millions in infrastructure designed to reduce river flooding, stormwater runoff, and combined sewer overflows. In this region some of the area's most at-risk for current and projected increases in urban flooding, sewer overflows, and river flooding are home to predominantly low-income communities and communities of color. As utilities work to reduce the impacts of more extreme precipitation, that work must be (and is being) seen as an opportunity to address social and racial inequities that create disproportionate impacts on overburdened communities. For example, capital projects deigned to address climate risks are evaluated using an equity and social justice framework that outlines pro-equity practices, processes, and outcomes. While the presentation in this session is based in the Northwest, all utilities face common challenges: potentially large increases in heavy rain events, aging and undersized infrastructure, impacts to overburden communities, limited funding, and the expectation that 'business as usual' will not work in a changing climate.
This presentation shows how research on changes in heavy precipitation is being leveraged across different programs to reduce climate change vulnerabilities while also pointing to ways to 'institutionalize' climate preparedness within decision making processes. Utilities are faced with having to make near-term policy and decisions while balancing costs and long-term uncertainty. With pressure from the public and decisions makers utilities are often put in a position to make hasty decisions and policy that may be costly and lead to unnecessary use of limited resources (money, land, etc.).
This presentation demonstrates how hydrologic and hydraulic modeling results can be used to better understand the implications of projected changes in precipitation on infrastructure design and performance. Changes in design standards are being assessed, allowing decision makers to evaluate the tradeoffs between (for example) doubling the size of stormwater retention ponds or conveyance pipes versus integrating a grey/green infrastructure approach to balance performance needs, costs, and uncertainty. The effectiveness of these choices will be evaluated using established criteria and metrics, including the ability to meet water quality targets, minimize or avoid combined sewer overflows, and minimize or avoid damaging flood flows. Along with an understanding of the impacts of affordability and addressing historical inequities in land use and infrastructure investment. Utilities will need to use a variety of available regulatory tools, such as integrated planning, to help shape long-term investments in grey and green infrastructure, and how those initial assessments should be led by the development of an adaptive decision-making framework designed to help manage uncertainty. This presentation provides a case study of how different organizations moves from knowledge to action on climate preparedness, and how that journey can drive deeper organizational learning. The presentation will explore how utilities can use investments in research to deepen its understanding of climate impacts on stormwater, wastewater, and flood management. The presentation will also discuss adaptation approaches to addressing these impacts and how this work prompted the development of a new adaptive management framework for managing more intense precipitation.