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2050 Vision: Combining Climate Change Rainfall Projections with Population Forecasts to Visualize System Limitations
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Description: CSSW25 proceedings
2050 Vision: Combining Climate Change Rainfall Projections with Population Forecasts to Visualize System Limitations

2050 Vision: Combining Climate Change Rainfall Projections with Population Forecasts to Visualize System Limitations

2050 Vision: Combining Climate Change Rainfall Projections with Population Forecasts to Visualize System Limitations

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Description: CSSW25 proceedings
2050 Vision: Combining Climate Change Rainfall Projections with Population Forecasts to Visualize System Limitations
Abstract
Purpose Today many large utilities use hydraulic models to analyze system performance, but what about the future? You can use population projections to forecast regional growth in your model to get your base flow conditions. What about your rainfall? Are you using today's rainfall, maybe Atlas 14 from NOAA, to run simulations? That may be relevant for your current model, but what about the future? As climate change continues to occur, adjustments to the rainfall time series are also needed. This paper goes over how to update your hydrologic model with climate change so your rainfall events keep in step with any base flow changes as you model your system for future conditions. Benefits Planning for the future by using a hydraulic model is good practice to determine if your system can meet the demands of tomorrow. In the Hampton Roads region of southeastern Virginia, the local Planning District takes the US Census and works with each jurisdiction to determine growth in the area for the next 25 years. Planning for population changes is only half of the model equation. Rainfall also has an impact on system performance. As climate change occurs, the 10-year storm event that was used to estimate inflow and infiltration (RDII) into the collection system needs to be updated to capture the increase in rainfall intensity. That 5.6-inch rainfall event today could be a 6.8-inch event in 2050. If you are making upgrades to your system to overcome RDII challenges that exist today, will those improvements stand up to the more intense storms in the future? Status The Mid-Atlantic Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (MARISA) is a partnership with NOAA that has developed Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curve change factors for the mid-Atlantic region of the US. This work is presumed to be the basis of the NOAA update to the IDF curves that will become Atlas 15 and includes forward looking climate change impacts to rainfall across the US. HRSD has completed the creation of a future rainfall storm event using the local MARISA change factor. HRSD has also completed the creation of future base flows for half of the Service Area to setup the process for expanding the task to the remaining parts of the system. Running the model with the updated rainfall and population forecast for 2050 has shown a significant increase in flow. These modeled increased flows may require system improvements be programmed in the capital improvement plan. Conclusion As climate change continues to happen, planning for the future with today's budgets is more important than ever. While you can plan for growth - X acres of vacant land = Y number of new homes, planning for changes in rain intensity 25+ years from now is just as important. The system you plan today to handle a 10 year rainfall may only be a system capable of handling a 5 year event in the future. Incorporating climate change impacts to rainfall projection into your model along with population projections will provide insight to the limitations of your system and help you prepare your system for the future.
This paper was presented at the WEF/WEAT Collection Systems and Stormwater Conference, July 15-18, 2025.
Presentation time
11:15:00
11:45:00
Session time
10:45:00
11:45:00
SessionPlanning Resilient Collection Systems for the Future
Session number01
Session locationGeorge R. Brown Convention Center, Houston, Texas, USA
TopicClimate Change Adaptation, Flow Projections, Modeling
TopicClimate Change Adaptation, Flow Projections, Modeling
Author(s)
Martz, Robert
Author(s)R. Martz1
Author affiliation(s)HRSD, 1
SourceProceedings of the Water Environment Federation
Document typeConference Paper
PublisherWater Environment Federation
Print publication date Jul 2025
DOI10.2175/193864718825159860
Volume / Issue
Content sourceCollection Systems and Stormwater Conference
Copyright2025
Word count15

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Description: CSSW25 proceedings
2050 Vision: Combining Climate Change Rainfall Projections with Population Forecasts to Visualize System Limitations
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Description: CSSW25 proceedings
2050 Vision: Combining Climate Change Rainfall Projections with Population Forecasts to Visualize System Limitations
Abstract
Purpose Today many large utilities use hydraulic models to analyze system performance, but what about the future? You can use population projections to forecast regional growth in your model to get your base flow conditions. What about your rainfall? Are you using today's rainfall, maybe Atlas 14 from NOAA, to run simulations? That may be relevant for your current model, but what about the future? As climate change continues to occur, adjustments to the rainfall time series are also needed. This paper goes over how to update your hydrologic model with climate change so your rainfall events keep in step with any base flow changes as you model your system for future conditions. Benefits Planning for the future by using a hydraulic model is good practice to determine if your system can meet the demands of tomorrow. In the Hampton Roads region of southeastern Virginia, the local Planning District takes the US Census and works with each jurisdiction to determine growth in the area for the next 25 years. Planning for population changes is only half of the model equation. Rainfall also has an impact on system performance. As climate change occurs, the 10-year storm event that was used to estimate inflow and infiltration (RDII) into the collection system needs to be updated to capture the increase in rainfall intensity. That 5.6-inch rainfall event today could be a 6.8-inch event in 2050. If you are making upgrades to your system to overcome RDII challenges that exist today, will those improvements stand up to the more intense storms in the future? Status The Mid-Atlantic Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (MARISA) is a partnership with NOAA that has developed Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curve change factors for the mid-Atlantic region of the US. This work is presumed to be the basis of the NOAA update to the IDF curves that will become Atlas 15 and includes forward looking climate change impacts to rainfall across the US. HRSD has completed the creation of a future rainfall storm event using the local MARISA change factor. HRSD has also completed the creation of future base flows for half of the Service Area to setup the process for expanding the task to the remaining parts of the system. Running the model with the updated rainfall and population forecast for 2050 has shown a significant increase in flow. These modeled increased flows may require system improvements be programmed in the capital improvement plan. Conclusion As climate change continues to happen, planning for the future with today's budgets is more important than ever. While you can plan for growth - X acres of vacant land = Y number of new homes, planning for changes in rain intensity 25+ years from now is just as important. The system you plan today to handle a 10 year rainfall may only be a system capable of handling a 5 year event in the future. Incorporating climate change impacts to rainfall projection into your model along with population projections will provide insight to the limitations of your system and help you prepare your system for the future.
This paper was presented at the WEF/WEAT Collection Systems and Stormwater Conference, July 15-18, 2025.
Presentation time
11:15:00
11:45:00
Session time
10:45:00
11:45:00
SessionPlanning Resilient Collection Systems for the Future
Session number01
Session locationGeorge R. Brown Convention Center, Houston, Texas, USA
TopicClimate Change Adaptation, Flow Projections, Modeling
TopicClimate Change Adaptation, Flow Projections, Modeling
Author(s)
Martz, Robert
Author(s)R. Martz1
Author affiliation(s)HRSD, 1
SourceProceedings of the Water Environment Federation
Document typeConference Paper
PublisherWater Environment Federation
Print publication date Jul 2025
DOI10.2175/193864718825159860
Volume / Issue
Content sourceCollection Systems and Stormwater Conference
Copyright2025
Word count15

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Martz, Robert. 2050 Vision: Combining Climate Change Rainfall Projections with Population Forecasts to Visualize System Limitations. Water Environment Federation, 2025. Web. 14 Jul. 2025. <https://www.accesswater.org?id=-10117303CITANCHOR>.
Martz, Robert. 2050 Vision: Combining Climate Change Rainfall Projections with Population Forecasts to Visualize System Limitations. Water Environment Federation, 2025. Accessed July 14, 2025. https://www.accesswater.org/?id=-10117303CITANCHOR.
Martz, Robert
2050 Vision: Combining Climate Change Rainfall Projections with Population Forecasts to Visualize System Limitations
Access Water
Water Environment Federation
July 16, 2025
July 14, 2025
https://www.accesswater.org/?id=-10117303CITANCHOR